Demographic transition and demographic dividend in the states of India

Debasis Barik, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Demographic transition is inevitable and the utilization of the windows of opportunity it creates depends on policy framework of concerned nations. India has entered into the phase of demographic dividend since 1980 and will experience it till 2035 (UN; 2002). Unlike earlier studies, the present paper has made an attempt to understand demographic transition in state level and the dividend created through it in 21 major states following the process adopted by Mason and Lee (2006). Population has been projected using smoothed age-sex data of Census 2001 as base year population following Cohort Component method of projection. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are the youngest and Kerala is the oldest among major states followed by Tamil Nadu. First dividend is positive for all states in 2001. Delhi will observe negative dividend since 2016-21, followed by Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Most of the North Indian states will observe positive dividend till 2036-41.

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Presented in Session 29: Optimal fertility, demographic dividend and policy challenges