Future patterns of regional labor force and urbanization for Turkey: comparative analysis with the main demographic outputs of the regional and sub-regional population projections

Mehmet Dogu Karakaya, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)

The scope of this study is to view the labor force age groups of Turkey by the new provincial and regional urban/rural population projections for the centenary of the Republic of Turkey, based on Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) database, with contributions of Turkey Demographic and Health surveys (1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008), UN-World Population Prospects and General Population Censuses. This is the first trial-study for provincial based cohort-component population projection with regional and provincial assumptions, and is also the first one of ABPRS based projections except of national projections of TurkStat. According to the results of the study, different demographic patterns will be followed in sub-regions of Turkey. Population ageing will be occurred in western localities. Percentage of urban population will usually rise in some provinces and regions although the decreasing population sizes due to negative net migration or low fertility levels. Turkey’s total population will reach a value between approximately 81-83 million until 2023 with decelerating growth rate. It is seen that the population will become dense in cities and high population areas. Deviation from final phase of demographic transition appears when mainly going to eastern regions from western regions. There are deep differences between the demographic structures of the regions. Western regions are in an advanced level than the average in Turkey; they nearly reach to the end point of the demographic transition process or have reached. Percent values of 15-64 population will increase almost in everywhere. But its pattern have relationship with the internal migration. The eastern regions and rural areas will feed the western and more urbanized ones by young and dynamic migrants, by the higher fertility rates. Percent values of elderly (65+) population have linear proportion with the percent of 15-64 age groups.

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Presented in Session 100: Modelling internal migration