Influences of education, migration and socio-economic status on total fertility rate: a comparative analysis of the county of Izmir and Turkey's data

Serdar Ocek, Izmir Provincial Health Directorate
Mehmet Ozkan, Izmir Provincial Health Directorate
Şenol Sarıavcı, Izmir Provincial Health Directorate

Since TFR in Turkey increased to the maximum level of 7.1, it has then decrease albeit slowly. Finally, 2008 Turkey Demographic Health Surveys reported it to be 2.16, which is 50 % lower than 4.33 recorded in 1978. In the last three decades, the most frequent fertility age group has shifted from 20-24 to 25-29 age group. Postponement of birth goes to show that not only fertility rate, but also its pattern has changed. In addition to this transformation, regional characteristics are of great difference. The highest fertility rate is observed to be 3.29 in eastern region whereas western region has a fertility rate of 1.73. Located in western region of Turkey, province of Izmir includes 3.9 million people which is, 5.35 % of Turkey’s general population of 73.7 million. The study has examined TFR of Izmir which is significantly different from the present national average. Such parameters as education, migration and socio-economic factors which are all believed to influence TFR as well as fertility databases of the last decade. Unlike other regions in fertility, Izmir has shown distinctive regional variations in itself, which requires a careful analysis of the factors that tend to have a great impact on TFR. Moreover, considering its slowing fertility rate, the evident difference of Izmir from other cities and regions is thought to be likely to have a leading role or to be an example for the regions which are currenty and potentially comparable to Izmir. When TFR for 2007-2010 was calculated, data of birth was received from Hospital Informations Systems, information on education and migration from TURKSTAT, knowledge of Development Index from 2004 State Planning Organisation study and data of fertility between 2000-2010 from Provincial Health Directorate. In methodology, a comparative analysis has been used between Izmir and Turkey's data.

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Presented in Poster Session 3

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