Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a skew-symmetric probability density function

Stefano Mazzuco, Università di Padova
Bruno Scarpa, Università di Padova

Mixture probability density functions had recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bi-modal shape. These mixture probability density functions appear to be adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bi-modal but less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed based on skew-symmetric probability density functions. This model is both more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, showing a good fit with several shapes (bi-modal or unimodal) of fertility patterns.

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Presented in Session 37: New approaches in measuring and predicting fertility