Demographic transition, window of opportunity, and population bonus: toward a new population policy in Iran

Hatam Hosseini, Bu-Ali Sina University

This paper examines demographic transition and its consequences with an emphasis on demographic window in Iran. The results show that Iran is entering the third stage of demographic transition. The window of opportunity which opened in 2006 with its potential population bonus provides a golden opportunity for the Iran’s economy. Based on an intermediate scenario of the UN population projections (2009), Iran’s window of opportunity will remain open for almost four decades from 2005. This demographic dividend needs to be managed efficiently in order to be transformed into a better and sustainable economic growth. Thus, there is a need for a comprehensive population policies to not only manage the window of opportunity but also to introduce policies for maintaining fertility at its current level so that Iran will not be facing the prospects of very low fertility experienced in other Asian countries.

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Presented in Session 29: Optimal fertility, demographic dividend and policy challenges