The future of tertiary education in a society with a shrinking number of young persons. The facts and policy suggestions based on the projection of the number of students in Mazowieckie Voivodship in Poland

Katarzyna Kocot-Górecka, Warsaw School of Economics
Irena E. Kotowska, Warsaw School of Economics
Pawel A. Strzelecki, Warsaw School of Economics
Anita Abramowska-Kmon, Warsaw School of Economics

According to the demographic projections the population in the age 18-24 in Mazowieckie Voivodship will decline by the year 2025 by about 30%.The aim of the paper is to analyse different scenarios of tertiary education reforms and their impacts on the potential changes in the number of students in the years 2010-2035. The analysis shows that a sharp decline in the number of young persons in the two next decades should create strong incentives for universities to extend their offer to persons in prime-age and older. It could be helpful in popularization of life-long learning programmes.