Life expectancy and mortality in the three Baltic countries during 1990-2010: commonalities and differences

Juris Krumins, University of Latvia
Natalja Dubkova, University of Latvia

Life expectancy and mortality in the three Baltic countries during 1990-2010: commonalities and differences Juris Krumins – Professor, University of Latvia, Raina Blv.19, Riga LV-1586, Latvia, juris.krumins@lu.lv Natalja Dubkova – Doctoral student, University of Latvia, Raina Blv.19, Riga LV-1586, Latvia, natalja.dubkova@inbox.lv Analysis aims to give a summary of commonalities and differences in life expectancy trends, and factors behind the mortality change in the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, compared with Poland, Finland, Sweden, Belarus and Russia. Period of analysis include time of the fast transition to market economy during the first half of the 1990s, time of the recovery and integration into the EU (from the mid-1990s till May 2004), and period of short upswing, followed by recent recession (from 2008). Study involves analysis of mortality by sex, age, the main categories of causes of death, morbidity from tuberculosis and HIV, conventional and healthy life expectancy. Geographical differences in mortality and life expectancy, and inequalities in the face of death are analysed between population sub-groups – urban and rural, educational, ethnic. The change in life expectancy in the three Baltic countries during the last twenty years aligns to a middle trajectory between the most successful Eastern and Central European countries and those countries lagging behind. Estonia became a leader among the Baltic countries in terms of life expectancy in recent years and Lithuania is lagging behind Estonia and Latvia. Cardiovascular diseases and violent deaths are still playing considerable role in excess mortality, especially for men. Population censuses from March 2011 (Latvia and Lithuania) and December 2011 (Estonia) will clarify unaccounted population emigration stock, which will allow to specify total population numbers and its age distribution. Preliminary estimates declare smaller population numbers, and consequently higher mortality rates. New estimates of recent age-specific mortality changes will be presented.