Clarification and replenishment: Mexican-American fertility and incorporation

Christopher Smith, University of California, Irvine
Susan K. Brown, University of California, Irvine
Frank D. Bean, University of California, Irvine

The possibility of incomplete fertility incorporation among “third-plus” generation Mexican-American women has been noted for over a decade (Bean, Swicegood et al. 2000; Frank and Heuveline 2005). However, recent questions about the way the “third-plus” generation is measured, especially precisely who is in the group has led to speculation that the category is imprecise and negatively biased (Duncan and Trejo 2007; Alba and Islam 2009; Alba, Abdel-Hady et al. 2011; Duncan and Trejo 2011). The present paper seeks to contribute to research on fertility incorporation by (1) examining Mexican-origin childbearing using data that allow the isolation of a third-only generation, (2) estimating Mexican-origin/Anglo differentials based on these data, and (3) assessing whether “replenishment” effects stemming from recent increases in Mexican immigration may be raising overall Mexican-origin fertility. Using data from the Immigration and Intergenerational Mobility in Metropolitan Los Angeles (IIMMLA) survey, the General Social Survey (GSS) as well as the Current Population Survey (CPS) for Los Angeles and the nation as a whole, we find that, after isolating a third-only generation group, fertility incorporation among the Mexican origin is taking place, and indeed, progressing even faster. Despite this increase in fertility incorporation, it does appear that ethnic replenishment is associated with higher fertility in the Mexican origin population, thus suggesting the possibility of emerging countervailing influences on the fertility of this population.