Inter-regional migration in Tanzania: the role of socio-demographic and environmental factors

Cristina Ocello, University of Florence
Alessandra Petrucci, University of Florence
Maria Rita Testa, Vienna Institute of Demography

By using data from the first wave of the Tanzania National Panel survey (TZNPS) conducted in 2008/2009, we aim to investigate the relationship between environment and internal migration flows in Tanzania. In the TZNPS survey 16709 individuals nested in 3265 households (and 126 districts) were asked to report the three heaviest environmental shocks experienced in the last five years. We model the inter-regional migration flows occurred in the five years before the time of the survey by assessing the relative importance of socio-demographic and environmental determinants. The main hypothesis is that inter-regional migrations are influenced by environmental shocks at the origin and favorable environmental and socio-economic conditions at the destination. First, we run logistic models with the aim to figure out the most relevant individual predictors of migration. Second, we run Poisson regression models to identify the most important directions and the distance of the migration flows as well as the determinants of these spatial patterns in terms of push and pull factors. Results show that environmental shocks are an important driving force of inter-regional migration flows. However, other factors related to the individual’s socio-demographic characteristics as well as to the socio-demographic conditions at the origin and destination region do also play an important role.