Parity transitions during a stalled fertility decline: the case of Guatemala

Stuart H. Sweeney, University of California, Santa Barbara
Kathryn Grace, University of Utah

Once begun, fertility transitions are not supposed to stall. However, a number of contemporary emerging societies experience an extended period of stagnating or stalling fertility during their transition from high to replacement level fertility. In this research we analyze more than 20 years of fertiltiy behavior in Guatemala using five periods of reproductive health surveys. We focus our analysis on identifying the changing patterns of transition from one parity to the next over time while accounting for compositional changes. This analysis is conducted using Period Parity Progression Ratios at the country-level and event history analysis at the individual-level.