Religious demography of emerging economies. Age structures and fertility in the BRIC countries and the global religious consequences of their economic growth

Marcin Stonawski, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Cracow University of Economics
Vegard Skirbekk, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Michaela Potancokova, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Conrad Hackett, Pew Research Center
Brian J. Grim, Pew Research Center and Boston University

Brazil, Russia, India, and China are widely recognized as a block of countries whose global economic influence is rising. In this paper, we suggest that concomitant with the growing economic influence of these countries may come growing influence of the religious populations in each country. At a minimum, increasing economic and human capital in these countries will probably lead to discernible changes in the average socioeconomic profile of several of the worlds’ religions including Hinduism, Orthodox Christianity, and the religiously unaffiliated. Our research focuses on the demographic characteristics of religion in each of these countries, setting the stage for our projections of religious change in each country. We discuss possible global consequences of these changes.