Estimating the fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales (1991-2001) – is there an elevated level of fertility after migration?

James Robards, University of Southampton
Ann M. Berrington, University of Southampton
Andy Hinde, University of Southampton

In England and Wales the total fertility rate has been rising for almost ten years. Since the late 1990s migration to England and Wales has also accelerated. It is possible that the large number of migrants of childbearing ages moving to England and Wales, larger family size norms among foreign born women and a birth timing effect among recent migrants to England and Wales have led to the increase in the TFR. However, the relative influence of any timing effect among recent migrants on the total fertility rate is not known. Research on migrant fertility in France (Toulemon, 2004) and Sweden (Andersson, 2004) has identified elevated fertility levels among migrants in the time period immediately after the migration event. In England and Wales research has focused on period measures of fertility rather than estimating if there is an elevated level of fertility among the large number of recent migrants to England and Wales. This analysis seeks to identify if there is a higher rate of fertility among a sample of recent migrants to England and Wales. Through using longitudinal data on date of arrival in England and Wales and subsequent childbearing duration this research estimates the probability of giving birth in the period after the 2001 census.