The impact of education on the occurrence of first union and first birth. A comparative analysis between Mexico and Spain

Elsa Ortíz, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED)
Daniel Devolder, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED)

During the last decades there have been major changes in the patterns of transition to adulthood, characterized by low fertility and a delayed age at first union and at first child. Worldwide, these changes have taken place in parallel with a dramatic expansion of educational enrolment and attainment. In Spain most educated women usually postpone the formation of a family. On the other hand, we observe that, despite Mexico has also undergone a notable educational expansion; this is not accompanied by the same kind of delaying of events associated with the transition to adulthood. In Mexico first unions and first births still occur at young ages, even for the younger cohorts. It seems that raising a family while still being young is important for Mexican people and that it may even be also a factor in explaining why young person leave the education system. We propose to study the differences between Spain and Mexico in the relationships between the first union and the birth of a first child by level of education. We begin by a discussion of some methodological issues and the way to overcome them: most of past studies have tried to explain the timing of these events taking into account the educational attainment at the time of survey; however, this amounts to the explanation of current events (forming a union or having a first birth) with something that may happen in the future (the end of the main studies). We then present results of three kinds. First, we highlight the differences between Spain and Mexico in the formation of the first union and first maternity. Then, we study the relationships between the educational level and these events. Finally, we study the risk factors of the transition to first union and first maternity using Survival Analysis modelling