Future childbearing in Sweden

Lena Lundkvist, Statistics Sweden
Lotta Persson, Statistics Sweden

Future childbearing in Sweden In the calculations of the future fertility rates for Swedish born women in the official population projection a cohort approach is used. Estimations are made for every year on the probability that women will give birth in that year to their first, second, third or fourth (or more) child. So far, women born in the 1900s have generally given birth to an average of two children. How will cohort fertility develop in the future? The analysis is based on register data containing information on Swedish-born women from 1969–2010. For each woman there is annual data on age and childbearing by birth order. For different cohorts, the share of women who have given birth to at least one child, at least two children, at least three children and at least four children is calculated for ages 15–45. The continuation of childbearing, that is, having the second, the third and the fourth (+) child, is also calculated with transition probabilities. How stable are the transition probabilities for different cohorts? The results suggest that there will not be a decrease in the share having at least one or at least two children. Furthermore, a small decrease having at least three children and at least four children can be expected but the decline might be smaller than has been thought in previous fertility assumptions. The recuperation among later born cohorts are visible, especially in ages 35–39. Overall, one can conclude that cohort fertility in the future will decrease from the today’s level, two children per women, but the decline will probably be relatively small.