Who wants to go to Europe? Evidence from Morocco, Ukraine, and Turkey

Ahmet Icduygu, Koc University
Deniz Sert, MiReKoc

In the past decade, there has been a rising concern among policy makers and scholars about the likelihood of migration flows to Europe. Studies focusing on the areas neighbouring Europe and/or having migratory networks with the continent are particularly essential to estimate the volume of flows and the profile of potential migrants. Using the FP7 EUMAGINE data which consists of 6000 interviews based on regionally representative sample conducted in Morocco, Ukraine, and Turkey, this study aims to investigate dynamics and mechanisms behind the aspirations of people to migrate to Europe. By examining basic factors such as age, gender, urban/rural background, education level and occupation, family characteristics, and previous migration experiences, the profile of those who wish to migrate to Europe from Morocco, Ukraine, and Turkey will be investigated and compared. By applying bivariate and multivariate analysis, the impacts of individual characteristics of people and the structural factors that these people live in on the aspiration to move will be elaborated. This paper will argue that as far as the determinants of the question of “to migrate or not” are concerned, it is important to understand the continuing interplay of the following three elements: (1) individual migrant’s characteristics, perceptions, interpretations, and actions, (2) individual migrant’s more immediate personal-social environment such as household, family, and (3) structural (social, economic, political, demographic) settings in migration systems.