Integrated modelling of European migration: a first look at the final results by age and sex

James Raymer, University of Southampton
Jonathan J. Forster, University of Southampton
Peter W.F. Smith, University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton
Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Southampton

In this presentation, we present the final results from the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) project. This two-year project is funded by NORFACE and brings together three international teams specialising in migration data, uncertainty and modelling. We apply a Bayesian model to harmonise and correct for the inadequacies in the available data and to estimate the completely missing flows. Recent age- and sex-specific international migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) are estimated by using data provided by Eurostat, covariate information and expert judgements. The result is a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.