The impact of labour market dynamics on the return-migration of immigrants

Govert Bijwaard, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)

Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to The Netherlands, we estimate the causal effects of individual labour market spells on immigration durations using the ``timing-of-events'' method. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration, unemployment and employment processes. We find that return probabilities increase unemployment durations for all immigrant groups, while re-employment spells typically delay returns. The precise quantitative impacts on migration durations depend on both the timing and lengths of the employment and unemployment spells, and are evaluated in several factual and counterfactual examples.