Fertility level, changing trends and possible relaxation of the one-child policy in China

Bojuan Zhao, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Xiangliang Liang, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Zining Bao, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

Age-specific fertility rates in China decrease from 1990 to 2000. From 2000 onward, these rates for first-born babies increase everywhere and at all ages except for women under 27 in cities, under 26 in towns, and under 25 in counties (rural villages, excluding towns) because young people marry late. For second and above babies, fertility rates have also increased, exceeding the limits set by the one-child policy. Comparisons of the predicted age-specific rates for 2009 and the observed rates from an annual survey of the 0.1% of the entire population in 2009 validate the conclusions on the assessments of the fertility level and the changing trends. Based on the estimated age-specific fertility rates over years and current women's age distribution, China is supposed to be experiencing a peak or peaks of new born babies, and it is not a good timing to relax the one-child policy right now.